皖江城市带城镇化对农村工业经济增长的影响研究

The Influence of the Urbanization on Rural Industrial Growth:Taking Anhui Province as an Example

城镇化是一个国家工业化和现代化的重要标志,随着城镇化不断地深化和推进,必然对农村工业经济增长产生影响。本文基于安徽2005-2014年皖江城市带县域面板数据,利用面板回归和城镇化的拐点效应实证分析了城镇化对农村工业增长的影响。结果发现,城镇化对农村工业经济增长具有显著的短期正向效应;但是长期内,城镇化对农村工业经济增长表现为开始促进,然后抑制农村工业经济增长。在进一步分析其原因的基础上提出相应的政策建议。

Urbanization is an important symbol of national industrialization and modernization,along with the continuously deepen and advance urbanization, therefore,it inevitably has the influence on rural industrial economic growth. This paper,based on the Anhui Wan- jiang city belt county in 2005-2014 panel data,using the panel regression and inflection point of the effect of urbanization empirically ana-lyzes the influence of urbanization on rural industrial growth. The results showed that the urbanization of rural industrial growth has signifi-cant short-term positive effect; but in the long term,the urbanization of rural industry characterized by promoteing economic growth firstly, then inhibiting the rural industry. On the basis of further analyzing the reasons we put forward the corresponding policy implications.