湖北省国内旅游客源市场空间结构研究

Spatial structure study of domestic tourist market in Hubei Province

以湖北省旅游统计便览的调查数据为基础,运用Markov预测模型、数据模拟等方法分析湖北省国内旅游客源市场分布情况。经Markov预测模型预测,未来10年,湖北省国内旅游客源市场中,一级客源市场数量较稳定,且市场份额仍占主导地位;二级客源市场数量降低,市场份额比重有所降低;三级客源市场数量上升,市场份额比重有所上升。湖北省作为旅游目的地的空间作用力降低。湖北省对近距离旅游客源地的吸引力比较稳定;中距离旅游客源地的吸引力波动性比较大,有逐步降低的趋势;对远距离旅游客源市场的吸引力变化不明显。湖北省旅游客源市场分布符合距离衰减规律,在500km以内衰减较快,距离效应最为明显,500km以内的区域比重占到了58.39%以上。

Based on the survey data of Hubei Province tourism statistics enchiridion, the paper u-ses the method of Markov prediction model and the data simulation to analyze the distribution of the do-mestic tourist market of Hubei Province. According to the prediction of Markov prediction model, in the next 10 years, in the domestic tourist market of Hubei Province, the number of the first grade tourist market is stable, and the market share occupies a predominant position. The number of the second grade tourist market decreases, and the market share proportion has also decreases. The number of the third grade tourist market rises and the proportion of market share increases. As a tourist destination, the space force of Hubei Province decreases. The attraction of Hubei Province to the tourist source re-gions is stable at close range; the attraction to the tourist source regions in the midrange has a relatively large volatility, which has a tendency to gradually reduce; the attraction to the long - distance tourist source regions has no obvious change. The distribution of the tourist markets in Hubei Province accords with distance attenuation law, it attenuates fast within 500 km, distance effect is most obvious, it ac-counts for 58. 39% of the total area within 500 kilometers of the above, 500 - 1900 km ranges have the characteristics of volatility reduction. Domestic tourist market of the attenuation law in Hubei Province follows the power exponent attenuation; its distance friction index is 1. 3588.