人口年龄结构、人力资本与出口技术复杂度

Age Structure, Human Capital and Export Sophistication

文章分析了人口年龄结构、人力资本及两者的交互作用影响出口技术复杂度的机理并以此提出了理论假设。在此基础上通过测算中国31个省级行政区的出口技术复杂度,采用两种方法对理论假设进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,人口年龄结构(抚养比)以及交互项对出口技术复杂度具有显著的负向影响,人力资本对其具有显著的正向影响,等同的变动比例下人力资本对出口技术复杂度的作用力度大于人口年龄结构以及交互项的作用力度之和,理论假设通过了逻辑一致性检验。据此,提升人力资本能有效抵御人口结构变动对出口技术复杂度的不利影响。

This article analyzes the interactive effects between age structure and human capital on export sophistication, and proposes a theoretical hypothesis. Then through calculating the export sophistication of 31 provinces in China, two methods are used to carry out the empirical analysis.The results show that age structure（population dependency ratio） and interaction term have significant negative impact on export sophistication,and the human capital has significant positive effect. Under an equal change ratio, the effect of human capital on export technology complexity is greater than the total effect of population age structure and the interaction term. The theoretical hypothesis has been tested in logical consistency.Accordingly, the adverse effects on export sophistication of demographic changes can be effectively resisted by promoting human capital.