外汇储备对我国通货膨胀不确定性影响的实证分析

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Foreign Exchange Reserves on China's Inflation Uncertainty

当前我国已经积累了高额的外汇储备,这意味着我国有充裕的对外清偿能力和汇率稳定能力,为维护金融安全提供了资产保障。然而外汇储备规模并不是越多越好,我国为持有高额外汇储备付出了巨大的显性成本及隐性成本,使得价格信号失真增加了通货膨胀的不确定性,造成经济系统信号紊乱致使社会经济资源错配和社会福利损失。文章分析了外汇储备对通货膨胀不确定性的动态影响并提出对策建议,以期对政府和经济决策层提供参考。

China has accumulated enormous amount of foreign exchange reserves, which means that China has abundant international payments ability, providing capital guarantee for maintaining the financial security of our country. However, excessive amount of foreign exchange reserves is a double-edged sword as well. China has paid not only visible cost but also invisible cost for holding excessive foreign exchange reserves, leading to the price signal distortion and increasing the uncertainty of inflation. The article, using monthly time series data from the year 2000 to 2015,analyzed impact of the foreign exchange reserves on China’s inflation uncertainty. The results show that China’s foreign exchange reserves would exacerbate China’s inflation uncertainty.