基于STELLA和输出系数法的流域非点源负荷预测及污染控制措施

Prediction of non-point source load based on STELLA and export coefficient method and prevention measures

以汾河流域为研究对象,综合考虑非点源污染与农村生活、社会经济、土地利用之间的因果关系,利用输出系数法和系统动力学理论建立流域非点源污染的STELLA模型,对汾河流域非点源污染TN负荷进行估算,并提出缓解方案。结果表明,2014年汾河流非点源污染TN负荷为8.961×10~4t,农村生活污染贡献最大;当前发展模式无法实现TN负荷的有效控制,至2030年将增长6.83%;强化农村水废处理和改善土地利用方式对TN负荷有明显的削减效果,且综合型发展方案比单一倾向性措施更具现实意义。

Based on comprehensive analysis of the complex causalities between non-point source pollution and rural livelihoods,social economy, and land use, a STELLA model was built with the export coefficient method and system dynamics theory to simulate and predict the total nitrogen （TN） load from non-point sources in the Fenhe River Basin. The results show that the TN load of the study area was 8. 961× 1041 in 2014, which was mostly attributed to activities related to local rural livelihoods. The current development mode cannot effectively control the pollution and the TN load will increase by 6. 8 3 % by 2030. Reinforcing wastewater treatment and encouraging land use types less conducive to non-point source pollution will greatly reduce the TN load, and the comprehensive development solutions are more practical than the simple and biased measures.