2010年北京市归因于大气PM_(2.5)污染的过早死亡研究

Premature mortality attributable to ambient PM_(2.5) pollution in 2010 in Beijing

目的评估大气PM_(2.5)长期暴露导致的过早死亡,为科学制定政策保护人群健康提供科学依据。方法收集卫星遥感反演的北京市2010年的PM_(2.5)浓度数据、人口数据、基线死亡率等基础数据,利用GIS空间统计工具将网格化的PM_(2.5)污染数据转换为区县尺度数据,基于WHO的经典全球疾病负担评估模型和PM_(2.5)全暴露范围RR函数表,评估北京市各区县归因于大气PM_(2.5)污染的过早死亡,并探讨其空间分布特征及分疾病种类的特点。结果 2010年北京市各区县的大气PM_(2.5)年均浓度均超过GB 3095—2012《环境空气质量标准》二级浓度限值(35μg/m^3);北京市归因于大气PM_(2.5)污染的过早死亡数为16 527人,归因死亡率为0.843‰,中心城区和东南部郊区的过早死亡风险较高,过早死亡数最多的为朝阳区(5 648人,归因死亡率为1.542‰)和海淀区(4 211人,归因死亡率为1.284‰),过早死亡数最少的为西北部郊区。结论北京市2010年归因于大气PM_(2.5)污染的过早死亡人数较多,应引起相关部门的重视;在制定政策减少归因于大气PM_(2.5)污染的过早死亡时,应重点关注人口密集的中心城区和发展较快的东南部郊区,并基于各区县过早死亡的疾病分布特点开展针对性的宣教和防控。

Objective To estimate the premature mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5pollution, to provide scientific evidence for making adaptation polices. Methods The PM2.5data, the demographic data and baseline mortality were collected in Beijing.The PM2.5data retrieved from satellite were converted to county scale by GIS spatial statistical tools. The WHO ’s classic global burden of disease evaluation model and PM2.5full exposure range RR function table were used to evaluate the premature mortality attributable to PM2.5pollution in all districts of Beijing city. Results In 2010, the annual average PM2.5concentrations of all districts in Beijing exceeded the limit（35 μg/m3） of grade two standard of GB3095-2012 Ambient Air Quality Standards.The premature mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5pollution were 16 527 in Beijing, which was about 0.843‰ of the population. The premature mortalities attributable to PM2.5in central urban and southeastern suburb were higher than the others.The highest premature mortality attributable to PM2.5was found in Chaoyang district and Haidian district. There were 5 648（about 1.542‰ of total population） premature deaths attributable to PM2.5in Chaoyang district,and 4 211（about 1.284‰ of total population） in Haidian district. Conclusion In 2010, the premature mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5pollution in Beijing is higher. To reduce the premature mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5pollution, the central urban areas and the rapidly developing southeastern suburbs should be priority. Meanwhile, different attributable disease should be paid attention to in different districts.