农产品出口贸易对山东省经济增长作用的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Function of Export of Agricultural Products to Economic Growth of Shandong Province

改革开放以来尤其是入世之后,山东农产品出口规模迅速扩大。同时农产品出口对山东的经济增长也产生了重要的影响。本文对二者相关数据用协整理论和自适应预期模型进行实证分析,实证结果表明山东农产品出口贸易和经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系。山东农产品出口贸易对地区GDP增长有正向促进作用,Granger因果关系表明山东的经济增长和农产品出口贸易增长之间存单向关系。自适应预期模型说明出口预期会影响经济增长。山东应该建立农产品出口导向型发展战略,利用自身优势,进一步提高农产品质量,促进农产品出口贸易。

Since the reform and opening, Especially after the wto accession , Shandong agricultural product export scale expands rapidly.At the same time, the economic growth of agricultural products export in shandong has important influence. In this paper, the relevant data using cointegration theory and adaptive forecast model for empirical analysis,The empirical results show that the shandong agricultural product export trade and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth.Shandong agricultural product export trade to regional GDP growth has a positive role in promoting.Granger causality shows that economic growth in shandong and the deposit certificate to the relationship between agricultural product export trade growth.The adaptive expectation model shows expected exports will affect economic growth.Shandong agricultural products export-oriented development strategy must be established, using their own advantages, to further improve the quality of agricultural products, promote the export trade of agricultural products.