中国农业生产水环境承载力及污染风险评价

Assessment on Water Environmental Carrying Capacity of Agricultural Production and Pollution Risk in China

[目的]对我国各区域农业生产水环境承载能力和污染风险进行评价,以期实现水环境承载力的可控和生态环境的平衡,为合理规划农业生产密度与区域布局、实现农业可持续发展提供参考和意见。[方法]利用2006—2014年中国7大农区24个省份的统计数据,采用过剩氮和水盈余方法测算农业生产水环境承载力。[结果]中国农业生产水环境负荷警报值不断向污染威胁临界值靠近,辽宁、河南、河北、山东、江苏和宁夏6个地区的污染风险最为严重。[结论]污染风险严重的地区应强制实行农业生产总量控制与污染消减措施;东北平原、长江流域和华南基本不存在污染风险,可适当扩大农业生产规模;河套灌区和汾渭平原污染风险较低,应结合地区产业发展特色,重点加强污染物消减措施。

[Objective] In order to control the water environment carrying capacity and achieve the balance of ecological environment, this paper evaluated the water environment carrying capacity of agricultural production and the pollution risk, aimed to provide reference, and opinion for rational planning of agricultural production density and regional distribution, and for further sustainable development of agriculture. [Methods] According to the statistical data of 7 crop-growing areas of 24 provinces in China during 2006--2014, the paper estimated the water environmental carrying capacity of agricultural production with surplus nitrogen and water surplus methods. [Results] Chinese load alarm value of agricultural production on water environment was closed to the critical value of pollution. The pollution risks of Liaoning, Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu and Ningxia＇s was in the highest list. [Conclusion] The highest pollution risk areas should enforce the total amount control of agricultural production and pollution reduction measures. The Northeast plain, the Yangtze River basin and South China had no pollution risk, having some potential to expand the scale of agricultural production. Hetao irrigation district and Fenwei Plain had low pollution risk. The government should also consider the endemic traits of industrial development in the enhancement of pollutant abatement.