塔里木河流域耕地面积动态变化特征及驱动因子

Change Features of Cultivated Land Resources and Its Driving Factors in Tarim River Basin

[目的]对塔里木河流域耕地面积动态变化特征及驱动因子进行分析,为实现区域内耕地保护与可持续利用提供理论依据。[方法]依据1990—2014年塔里木河"九源一干"区域各地州的统计资料,分析塔里木河流域耕地面积和重心的变化特点,将主成分分析与多元回归分析相结合,探讨耕地面积变化的驱动因子。[结果](1)1990—2014年,耕地总面积由1.01×106 hm^2增加到2.05×106 hm^2,人均耕地面积由0.131hm^2增加到0.194hm^2,耕地面积重心向东偏北方向移动61.10km;(2)社会经济发展、人口增加和农业生产发展是耕地面积变化的主要驱动因子;(3)建立了耕地面积与驱动因子之间的多元线性回归模型(R2=0.960),检验结果表明模拟值与实际值之间没有显著差异(p>0.05)。[结论]耕地的面积和重心始终处于一个动态变化的过程中,人文因素是影响耕地特征变化的主要原因。

[Objective] Dynamic change features of agricultural area and the driving factors were elucidate to provide theoretical foundation for the sustainable utilization and protection of cultivated land in Tarim River basin. [Methods] Change characteristics of agricultural area and superficial ortbocenter were analyzed according to the statistical data of all regions, including so-called ＂nine sources and one main stream＂. Both PCA and multivariate regression analysis were used to detect the driving factors. [Results] （1） Total cultivated area from 1.01 × 10^6 hm2 to 2.05 × 10^6 hm2, from 0. 131 hm2 to 0. 194 hm2 for each person. Orthocenter of the agricultural area moved northeastward with a distance about 61. 10 km. （2） Three main factors as socioeconomic development, increase in population and development of agricultural production drove the changes of agricultural area. （3） The established multi-linear regression model （R2 =0. 960） between agricultural area and driving factors showed that there was no significant difference（p〉0.05） between the simulated values and the actual values. [Conclusion] It was always in a dynamically changing status for agricultural area and orthocenter. Human factors were the major influencing cause of the cultivated land.