考虑科技创新投入产出时滞影响的国家创新能力非线性测评

Nonlinear Assessment of National Innovation Capability Considering Time Lags Effects of Innovation Input-output

针对现有国家创新能力评价方法存在的问题提出科技创新投入产出时滞影响的国家创新能力非线性测评方法。科学选取评价指标,构建基于时滞影响和最小二乘支持向量机的国家创新能力测评模型,以二十国集团(G20)成员国为例进行实证研究,通过将评价结果与相关研究报告的评价结果进行分析对比,确定方法的准确性和可行性,最后对G20成员国创新能力进行评价分析。文章提出的测评方法有助于真实准确地反映国家创新发展水平,以帮助决策者制订和实施创新战略。

For the existing problems associated with the assessment of national innovation capability, this paper proposes a novel method considering time lags effects of innovation input-output. According to the characteristics of the national innovation system, this paper establishes the assessment index system and the mathematics model based on lagged effect and Least Squares Support Vector Machines （ LS-SVM ） , evaluates the national innovation capability of the Group of Twenty （ G20 ） , and finally reveals the development level and variation of national innovation capability through in-depth comparative analysis. The nonlinear method considering lagged effect can improve the accuracy of evaluation so as to assist policymakers in designing and implementing innovation strategies.