基于生态赤字价值补偿的绿色税收模拟研究

Simulation and Analysis of Green Tax Policy Based on the Compensation of Ecological Deficit Value

绿色税制构建和生态补偿是生态文明建设的重要内容。本文以生态足迹量化了粮食和能源消费对以林地、草地和耕地为载体的自然生态空间的占用,其中能源消费的CO2排放与林地等碳汇相结合,并以CO2直接排放所引致的生态赤字与粮食消费的生态赤字之和表示应补偿的生态占用。借鉴生态系统服务功能经济价值核算方法所确定的价格体系,计算了生态赤字的价值,提出基于生态赤字价值补偿的绿色税收方案,运用CGE模型比较不同补偿强度下资源配置、经济增长和收入分配的变化。结果表明:(1)生态赤字规模较大,主要是因为能源消耗排放大量的CO2对生态空间占用较大,而林地等碳汇相对不足;(2)税收方案支持双重红利假说,不仅减少生态赤字,而且增加三大产业就业;(3)各部门负担增加,全行业总产出下降,生态占用较大的部门税负增加和总产出减少最大,由于中间投入减少更大,因而基于生产法的名义GDP增长,但实际GDP下降;(4)政府税收增长高于居民和企业的要素报酬的增长,提高补偿税率后,政府税收增长相对更快,但都存在递减趋势。

Green taxation and ecological compensation is an important part of the construction of ecological civilization. This paper applies the ecological footprint to empirically describe the natural ecological space occupied by agricultural products and fossil energy consumption, measures the value of ecological deficit, puts forward a green taxation project based on the value compensation of ecological deficit, and compares the changes in resources allocation, economic growth, and income distribution on different compensation levels with the use of CGE Model. The results of the study are as follows： （ 1 ） The economic value of China＇s ecological deficit in 2010 reached 2. 08 trillion, which leads to a large amount of CO2 emission and the relative shortage of forest land and other carbon sink. This is an important reason for the increase of ecological deficit ; （2） The tax plan has a double dividend effect in that it not only reduces the ecological consumption but also increases the employment; （3） The tax burden increases while the total output declines. Those sectors occupying larger ecological space are influenced most, and as the intermediate input is on a greater decline than the total output, the nominal GDP is on the increase, while the real GDP is on the decrease ; （4） The government tax revenue has improved faster than the income growth of residents and enterprises from the return of factors input. With the increase of tax compensation rates, the government revenue grows even faster, but there is a decreasing trend.