金砖国家出口产品质量的测度及比较分析

The Estimation and Comparative Analysis on Export Quality of the BRICs

本文借鉴Khandelwal(2010)模型,利用HS 6位码的货物贸易数据,测算并比较了1995~2015年间金砖国家制造业出口质量指数。结果发现:中国制造业出口质量并未随着中国出口规模的扩张而上升,甚至出现略微恶化的趋势。在对金砖国家的制造业出口质量指数比较后发现:中国出口质量的下降更多地来源于资源型产品和低技术产品,其质量比较优势逐渐丧失。低技术制成品行业将成为金砖国家未来竞争最为激烈的行业。中国中技术制成品质量稳定增长,但高技术制成品质量增长缓慢。通过国际产业转移将低端行业转移到印度等其他金砖国家将是避免恶性竞争、优化中国出口结构的重要渠道。此外,金砖国家具有质量优势的产品种类具有互补性,加强金砖国家互补产业之间的合作是推动金砖国家质量升级的重要途径。

The paper estimates the export quality of HS 6-digit manufacturing products in the BRICs based on the Khandelwal （2010）. The results reveal that Chinese manufacturing quality didn＇t improve with the huge expansion of trade volume, whereas declined slightly compared to 20 years ago. With the comparison with quality in the other BRICs countries, Chinese export quality degradation origins from the decline in low-technical manufacturing products, which are losing their quality comparative advantage and will become the most competitive industry among the BR1Cs in the future. The quality of semi-technical manufacturing products in China increases steadily while the quality of high-technical products is decreased. The facts indicate that China should transfer its lower industries to the other BRICs countries to avoid competition and concentrate on the development of high technical industries. In addition, as the BRICs has different quality comparative advantage complementing to each other, it would be suggestive for them to cooperate to upgrade quality.