近十年来中国地级及以上城市新型城镇化水平空间格局演变及收敛性分析

Spatial Pattern and Convergence of the Level of New Urbanization in Chinese Cities at Prefecture-level in Recent 10 Years

新型城镇化是中国城镇化健康稳定发展的基本保证,各区域城镇化均衡发展是新型城镇化的重要内涵。本文基于2003-2012年我国286个地级及以上城市的统计数据,从经济、社会、生态和城乡一体化四个方面构建新型城镇化指标体系,运用熵值法评价各城市的新型城镇化水平,并结合ESDA-Arc GIS和空间计量模型,探讨了我国新型城镇化水平的空间格局及其β收敛特征。结果表明:(1)我国新型城镇化水平总体呈明显的上升趋势,东中西部差异明显,城镇化均值表现为东部>全国>中部>西部,增长幅度表现为西部>全国>东部>中部;(2)我国的新型城镇化存在显著的空间集聚效应,表现出明显的"东高西低"的梯度变化规律;(3)我国的新型城镇化发展存在β收敛,在增加空间因素后,城镇化水平的绝对收敛速度明显加快,稳健性也大大提高,从条件β收敛分析来看,人均GDP和非农人口比重2个因素是促进我国各区域城镇化均衡发展的关键因素。因此,加强经济增长与市民化的空间联动是实现中国城镇化均衡发展的关键因素。

The new urbanization is the basic guarantee for the healthy and stable development of urbanization in China. The balanced development of urbanization is the important connotation of new urbanization. Based on the statistical data of 286 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2012, this paper constructs a new urbanization index system from four aspects： economic, social, ecological and urban-rural integration, and uses the entropy method to evaluate the new urbanization level of each city. Combined with ESDA-ArcGIS and spatial measurement model, the spatial pattern and β-convergence characteristics of the new urbanization level are discussed. The results show that： （1） The new urbanization level in China is obviously increasing, the difference is obvious in the eastern, central and western regions, and the urbanization mean is east〉 national〉 central〉 west. The growth rate is western〉 national〉 eastern〉central. （2） There is a significant spatial agglomeration effect in the new urbanization in China, showing a clear change of the gradient of the ＂east and west low＂. （3） There is a convergence of β in the development of new urbanization in China. After the increase of spatial factors, the absolute convergence rate of urbanization is obviously accelerated and the robustness is greatly improved. From the point of convergence analysis, the per capita GDP and non-agricultural population are 2 factors which are the key factors to promote the balanced development of urbanization in various regions of our country. Therefore, to strengthen the economic growth and urbanization of the spatial linkage is the key factor to achieve the balanced development of China＇s urbanization.