基于多层流模型的煤层注水系统时效可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of Coal Seam Water Injection System Based on Multilevel Flow Models

为了研究煤层注水过程中可靠度随时间的变化规律,运用多层流模型对煤层注水系统进行建模,描述了目标和功能之间的相互关系。应用基于多层流模型的系统可靠性分析(MRA)方法中时间点和随时间失效概念,将煤层注水过程划分为若干时间段,时间间隔设置为4 h,计算出系统和子系统在各个时间点的可靠度;运用多项式拟合和指数拟合并进行误差分析,得出多项式拟合效果较好,通过拟合曲线方程对系统可靠度进行预测。分析表明:煤层注水过程在失效部件的影响下,系统可靠度按照时间的四次多项式的规律变化。基于多层流模型的系统可靠性分析方法,可以在不同抽象层次上表达系统知识,有利于发现系统的薄弱环节,在对系统预测和设备维护管理中具有较高的应用价值。

In order to study the change law of reliability over time in the process of coal seam water injection, multilevel flowmodels were used to establish the model of coal seam water injection system and describe the relationship between the target andthe function. By using the concept of time points and the failure over time, which was in the system reliability analysis ,nethodbased on the multilevel flow models, the process of coal seam water injection was divided into several periods, and the intervalwas set to four hours, then the reliability of the system and the subsystem was calculated at all-time points. The polynomial fittingand exponential fitting was used to analyze the error, the polynomial fitting effect was better, and the system reliability waspredicted by fitting curve equation. The results showed that in the process of coal seam water injection, the system reliabilitychanged in accordance with the four polynomial rule of time under the influence of failure parts. Based on multilevel flow models,the system reliability analysis method could express system knowledge on diffetent levels, it was useful to find theweakness of system, and it had high application value for the system prediction and the equipment maintenance management.