基于可拓云模型的区域生态安全预警模型及应用——以祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段为例

Early-warning model for the ecological security and its application based on the extension-liable theory——a case study of Zhangye section of Qilian Mountain glacier and water conservation ecological function area

针对区域生态安全预警中的不确定性问题,考虑生态安全等级边界信息的随机性、模糊性及动态性,利用可拓学中兼具定性和定量分析及动态性的物元理论和具有不确定推理特性的云模型,提出了基于可拓云模型的区域生态安全预警模型;运用该模型对祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段2005—2015年生态安全进行了定量评估,并对2017年生态安全环境进行动态预警。结果表明:祁连山生态功能区张掖段2005—2015年的生态安全整体水平均处于"理想"以下,其变化趋势为"较差"到"一般"再到"良好";2017年祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段生态安全为"蓝色"预警,但有向"黄色"转变的趋势,其中工业三废、环保投入强度、森林覆盖率及人均水资源量是影响祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段生态安全的主要因素。

Taking into account the randomness,fuzziness and dynamics of the boundary information for the ecological safety and aiming at the uncertainties that may exist in the regional ecological safety warning,this article has first of all developed and proposed a warning model for the regional ecological safety based on the extension-liable model in accordance with the matter-element theory introduced in the extension theory,which features with the qualitative and quantitative analysis in dynamic nature according to the cloud model with the uncertain reasoning properties.And,then,we have built up a warning indicating system for Zhangye section of Qilian Mountain range＇s glacier and water conservation eco-functional area in accord with the actual situations and made a quantitative assessment on the ecological safety for the Qilian Mountain glacier and water conservation ecological area from 2005 to 2015 on the basis of the above models.The assessment results we have achieved demonstrate the feasibility of this model to offer evaluation and warning for the ecological safety of the function area in close accord with the actual situations.And,finally,we have successfully conducted a dynamic warning test for the ecological safety environment with the evaluation indicators for Zhangye section of the mountain range in 2017.The final research re-sults demonstrate that the overall level of the ecological safety for the Qilian Mountain ecological function area from 2005 to 2015 turn out to be below the ＂ ideal expectation＂,changing from＂the worse＂to ＂the medium＂and then tends to be getting to ＂excellent＂.However,in 2017,the ecological safety for the said mountain glacier and water conservation ecological function area has to be faced with a＂blue＂warning,leaving a liability to be confronted with a ＂yellow warning level＂in the future.The warning results for each indicator suggest that：those,such as the three industrial wastes,the environmental protection inputs,the forest coverage proportional ratio and the personal share of water resources serve as major factors to affect the ecological safety for the area.The early-warning model of the ecological security that we have built up in this paper enjoys its own advantages of compatibility and flexibility,for which they are not only feasible for specific warning analyses on the particular targeting element of ecological security,but also for transforming the multiple-level objective assessments into a single-level objective decision-making to better analyze the regional security status-in-situ.