Z-score模型对中国上市公司财务预警适用性分析

The Application of Z-score Model on Financial Early Warning of Chinese Listed Companies

从财务预警的角度研究上市公司的信用风险,从而了解公司的财务状况,有益于投资者和管理层采取有效的风险防范。Z-score模型是发达国家最广泛使用的风险预警模型之一,通过应用Z值评分模型,选取2015年中国股票市场上52家ST上市公司作为研究样本,对其被ST特殊处理前三年的年度财务数据进行分析。研究结果显示,Z-score模型可适用于目前中国股票市场ST上市公司的财务风险预警,且预警效果显著。

It is beneficial for investors and managers to study the credit risk of listed companies and understand the company＇s financial situation from the perspective of financial early warning,because it can help investors and managers take effective risk prevention.Z-score model is one of the most widely used risk early warning models in developed countries.By applying Z-score model,52 ST listed companies in Chinese stock market of 2015 were selected as the research samples and analysis were made on the three-year annual financial data of these sample companies before they were specially treated by ST.The result indicates that Z-score model can be applied to analyzing the financial risk early warning of listed companies in Chinese stock market,and the effect of early warning is remarkable.