我国相机抉择财政政策对经济增长与私人消费的影响——基于SVAR模型分析

The Impactof Discretionary Fiscal Policyon Economic Growthand Private Consumptionin China——An Analysis Based on SVAR Model

文章在利用Muller and Robert方法估计的实际预算余额的结构性成分的基础上,通过建立结构性预算余额、私人消费和实际GDP三变量的SVAR模型,结合脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术方法得出我国现行的相机抉择财政政策对私人消费的长期贡献率为9.38%,私人消费对产出的贡献远高于财政支出(结构性预算余额)对产出的贡献。文章首先将实际预算余额分成结构性预算余额和周期性预算余额两部分,同时利用估算出的潜在产出对实际预算余额进行了估计,其次检验了结构性预算余额相机抉择财政政策对私人消费以及产出的影响,最后实证分析我国相机抉择财政政策对产出和私人消费的影响,即都存在正向关系。

Based on using the Muller and Robert method to estimate the structural components of the actual budget balance, by building the three variables SVAR model of structural budget balance, private consumption and the real GDP, and combining with the impulse re- sponse function and variance decomposition method, this paper gains that the long-term contribution rate of China＇s current discretionary fiscal policy to private consumption is 9.38%, and the contribution of private consumption to output is much higher than that of fiscal ex- penditure （structural budget balance）. Firstly, the paper divides the actual budget balance into two parts： the structural budget balance and the cyclical budget balance, and estimates the actual budget balance by the estimated potential output. Secondly, the paper examines the impact of the structural budget balance discretionary fiscal policy on private consumption and output. Finally, the paper empirically analyz- es the impact of China＇s discretionary fiscal policy on output and private consumption, that they are positively related.