人民币国际化对货币政策有效性的影响

The Effect of RMB internationalization on the effectiveness of monetary policy

人民币国际化是否影响货币政策有效性?是人民币国际化程度提高之后货币大规模跨境流动而引起的担忧。文章研究发现,在给定其他因素不变的情况下,人民币国际化程度的提高放大了境外汇率变动对国内经济产出和价格的影响。因此,人民币国际化背景下,中央银行应将境外汇率失衡纳入货币政策的反应函数,反应系数取决于境外利率、产出和价格对境外货币需求的决定系数。理论分析还表明,人民币国际化程度不影响货币政策对国内价格的有效性,而是否影响货币政策对国内经济产出的有效性,则取决于经济结构特征。实证结果表明,目前人民币国际化未对国内利率、产出和价格带来明显冲击,且无论是在M0层次,还是在M2层次,人民币国际化均未明显影响国内货币政策有效性。

To answer the question whether RMB internationalization will dampen the effectiveness of monetary policy, this paper conducts theoretical research and empirical test on the impact of the development of the RMB offshore market on domestic effectiveness. It＇s found that given that other macroeconomic stability and monetary policy factors unchanged the increase in RMB internationalization will enlarge the foreign exchange rate＇s impact on the domestic economy output and price and reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy on domestic output, thus the central bank should incorporate the foreign exchange rate imbalance into the monetary policy reaction function in theory if RMB internationalization accelerates. Besides, it＇s showed theoretically that RMB internationalization has no effect on the effectiveness of monetary policy on price in any case, but as for output, it＇s determined by economic characteristic. The empirical result shows that RMB internationalization has achieved great progress, however it currently has not significant impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy.