保险发展、市场结构对社会福利的影响研究

The Effects of Insurance Development and Insurance Market Structure on Social Welfare in China

本文在一个封闭的拉姆齐模型的基础上,引入代表性行为人具有有限生命的条件,探讨保险发展、市场结构改变对社会福利的影响。发现保险发展在一定条件下可增进社会福利,保险市场垄断降低竞争加强会提高福利。然后,本文利用中国31个省市在2005-2014年间的面板数据,考虑内生性,采用2SLS方法,进一步将保险发展划分为为保险深度与保险赔付两个层次,对保险发展与保险市场结构影响福利的规律进行了计量分析。研究发现保险深度、保险赔付均可显著提高福利水平,同时保险市场垄断程度的降低会显著提高福利水平。基于面板门槛回归表明,保险深度、赔付与市场结构对社会福利的影响存在较为明显的门槛效应。

Based on a closed Ramsey model,this paper introduce the conditions that the representative person has a limited life,and discuss the effects of insurance development and insurance market structure on social welfare. We find that the insurance development can improve the welfare under certain conditions.Meanwhile,the model shows that reducing the monopoly and strengthening the competition in the insurance market will improve the welfare. Then using panel data for 31 Chinese provinces during 2005-2014 in consideration of the endogenous premise,adopting the method of 2SLS,and dividing the insurance development into insurance depth and insurance compensation,this paper empirically analyzes the effects of insurance development and insurance market structure on social welfare. The results show that insurance depth and insurance compensation can significantly improve the welfare,and reducing the monopoly degree can also improve the social welfare. The model based on the panel threshold regression shows that there is an obvious threshold effect on social welfare of insurance depth,insurance compensation and insurance market structure.