我国农业全要素生产率增长的动态变化与影响因素——基于DEA和SFA方法的比较研究

Dynamic Changes and Factors of Growth of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity in China——Based on a Compare Study by Using DEA and SFA

采用非参数的DEA-Malmquist生产率指数法、参数的随机前沿生产函数法(SFA)以及Pool OLS、固定效应模型(FE)、随机效应模型(RE)多种方法分析了1990—2012年我国28个省份的农业全要素生产率(TFP)的演变趋势及其影响因素。研究结论表明:两种方法测算的农业TFP年均增长率分别为3.1%和3.6%,但波动趋势呈现出相反的结论 ,技术进步是国家及其各省份、各区域农业TFP增长的主要来源,东部、中部、西部农业TFP依次递减;农业资本投入、人力资本和城市化水平对农业TFP增长都具有正向显著作用,而农业劳动投入、农业种植结构对农业TFP增长产生了显著的负向影响,财政支农力度在DEA法的结论中表现为对农业TFP的显著正向作用,土地投入的影响在两种方法中出现了相反的结论。

This article analyzes the development trend and factors of agricultural TFP of China5s 28 provinces from 1990 to 2012 by using DEA-Malmquist Index, SFA, Pool OLS, FE and RE. The results show that： the annual growth rates of agricultural TFP are 3.1% and 3.6% respectively based on the two test methods, but the development trends have different directions. Technologi-cal progress is the main factor causing agricultural TFP of the whole country and all provinces. Agricultural TFP decrease followed the sequence of eastern area, central area and western area. Agricultural capital investment, human capital and urbanization level have positive effects on the agricultural TFP, while agricultural labor input and agricultural planting structure have significant negative effects. Financial support for agriculture has positive effect on the agricultural TFP by DEA-Malmquist Index analysis. The effect of land input on the agricultural TFP has contrary results by using two different methods.