基于层次分析法与云理论的弹道导弹目标识别预案评估方法

Assessment Method for Identification Plan of Ballistic Targets Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Cloud Model

在弹道导弹防御系统中,目标识别预案是反导作战目标识别的重要依据,识别预案设计的优劣直接关系作战能力发挥,决定反导作战的成败。针对识别预案评估指标复杂,评估结果的不确定性,将识别预案评估分为前评估和后评估,并分别构建了指标体系;提出了一种基于层次分析法与云理论的识别预案评估方法,给出了识别预案综合评估流程;最后,运用该方法对识别预案进行评估。结果表明:该方法能对识别预案进行合理评价,有效提高评估结果的准确性和科学性。

The target recognition plan is an important basis for the identification of anti-missile combat objectives in the ballistic missile defense system. The identification of the merits of the plan design directly relates to the play of combat ability and determines the success of anti-missile opera-tions. Considering the complexity of the assessment plan and the uncertainty of the assessment re-sults ,the assessment plan is divided into pre-assessment and post-assessment, and an index system is constructed for each part respectively. Then, the paper proposes a method based on analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and cloud theory and brings out an identification plan comprehensive assessment process. At last, the paper evaluates the identification plan with the proposed method. The results show that the method can evaluate the identification plan reasonably and improve the accuracy and sci- entificity of the assessment results.