北江洪水预报的实践与思考

Experience and reflectiononon on flood prediction system in Bei-River

通过编制武江河段洪水预报方案新旧两种方法的对比,说明在洪水预报工作中,不能单纯只着眼于数理技术的提高,还需要运用唯物辩证法的认识论和方法论作指导。通过物理成因分析,改变原有的思路和方法,充分运用掌握到的水情信息和实践经验,将其有机结合,才能取得更好的效果。

This paper compared new method of flood forecasting system to previous one at section of Wujiang River, the study shows that flood prediction can not only focus on the mathematical techniques, but also should apply the dialectical materialism epistemology and methodology. In order to achieve better effectiveness on flood forecasting, the analysis of physical causes, change original principle and methods, and fully utilize water information are recommended.