基于可公度法的华北地区6.0级地震趋势

Earthquake tendency with M_S≥6.0 in the north China based on commensurability

本文利用1900年以来华北地区M_S≥6.0级地震资料,通过三元、四元、五元可公度计算,蝴蝶结构图和可公度结构系分析,对该区地震灾害的时间对称性进行了趋势判断.结果显示:华北地区2020年和2021年发生M_S≥6.0级地震的信号较强,其中2020年比2021年发震的可能性更大.空间对称性和震中迁移特征研究发现,其空间迁移经纬向具有一定的同步性和对称性,纬向迁移的对称轴在北纬38.7度左右,经向迁移的对称轴在东经118.7度左右.由此判断,华北地区下次M_S≥6.0级地震的发震地点向郯庐带和河北平原带交汇地区迁移的可能性较大,即渤海海峡及其附近地区.本研究可为华北地区地震大形势趋势判断提供参考和依据.

The tendency of the time symmetry of earthquake disasters has been predicted by use of ternary, quarternary and pentanary commensurability calculations as well as analysis of butterfly structural drawings and commensurability structural systems based on the data of MS ≥ 6.0 earthquakes in North China since 1900. The results show that the occurrence signal of MS ≥ 6.0 earthquake in North China in 2020 and 2021 is stronger, between which the possibility of the occurrence of earthquakes in 2020 is greater than that in 2021. The spatial symmetry and the epicenter migration characteristics have been studied on and we find that longitudinal and latitudinal directions of the spatial migration are synchronous and symmetric. The symmetry axis of latitudinal migration is at around 38.7 degrees north latitude while the symmetry axis of longitudinal migration is at around 118.7 degrees east longitude. Therefore, the next earthquake is more likely to occur in a reion where the Tanlu belt and North China plain belt intersect（Bohai Strait and its vicinity）. The study may provide some reference and basis for the earthquake tendency in North China.