荒漠化预警方法研究进展

A Review of Desertification Early Warning Methods

面对当前严峻的荒漠化形势,无论是国际和国家层面的应对框架,亦或是相关学术研究,都一致强调了荒漠化预警的重要性,但实际工作推进缓慢。通过梳理国内外相关研究得到了如下结论:第一,传统荒漠化评价方法不足以为预警工作提供可靠的科学依据;第二,国内的研究者已建立了荒漠化预警框架,但可操作性不强,案例研究仍沿袭传统评价方法;第三,国外预警研究致力于识别荒漠化发生的征兆,早期研究主要基于植被和土壤调查,稳态转换理论提出后,主要的研究方法开始转向基于时间序列和基于斑块分布两大类。今后的预警研究可从以下三方面着手:第一,通过时间序列研究,探索生态系统的空间变化特征;第二,探索如何将荒漠化过程中的各种反馈机制以及人为压力融入到预警模型之中;第三,需要从加强可操作性的角度改善已有的预警框架体系。

Human beings are experiencing： serious desertification. Emphasis has been put on the importance of desertification early warning, both in the frameworks at intentional/national level to combat desertifica- tion, and in academic research. However, desertification early warning has not been generally carried out in practice. Based on the review of related researches, the following conclusions had been made. Firstly, tra- ditional desertification assessment methods could not provide reliable scientific basis for early warning. Sec- ondly, some Chinese researchers had built the frameworks of desertification early warning system. As these frameworks were impracticable, traditional evaluation methods were still applied in case studies. Thirdly, many efforts had been made on the identification of early warning signals in foreign studies. Early studies were generally based on the surveys of vegetation and soil survey. As the development of regime shifts theo- ry, recent studies began to focus on the time series research and patch distribution. Further studies could be carried out in the following areas. Firstly, to study the spatial variation of the ecosystem by time series re- search. Secondly, to take various feedback mechanisms and artificial pressure into early warning models. Thirdly, to improve the existed early warning frameworks by enhancing their operability.