基于贝叶斯网络的城市燃气管道泄漏风险研究

Research on the risk of urban gas pipeline leakage based on Bayesian network

为了研究城市燃气管道泄漏风险,基于贝叶斯网络理论建立城市燃气管道泄漏风险模型,对模型进行风险预测、风险诊断及敏感节点分析。结果表明,城市燃气管道泄漏风险主要由管道腐蚀、管道缺陷、人为因素及自然环境等因素造成;由第三方破坏、应力破坏及管道腐蚀造成管道破裂而引发城市燃气管道泄漏事故的风险概率最大;对施工破坏、恶意破坏、内防腐失效、地质灾害及材料缺陷等风险因素进行控制是城市燃气管道泄漏风险管理的关键点。

In order to study the risk of urban gas pipeline leakage,a risk model was built based on the theories of Bayesian network,and the risk prediction,risk diagnostic and the sensitivity analysis of the model were carried out.The results showed that the gas pipeline in city has a certain risk of leakage,and it is mainly caused by the factors such as the pipeline corrosion,the pipeline defects,the human factors and the natural environment.The risk probability of the gas pipeline leakage caused by the third party damage,the stress damage and the pipeline corrosion is the biggest.The key of the risk management of urban gas pipeline leakage is the control of the risk factors such as the construction damage,the malicious damage,the anti-corrosion failure,the geological disaster and the material defects.