基于IO-SDA中国虚拟水贸易格局及驱动因素分析

Research on Virtual Water Trade and Its Driving Factors of China Based on Input-output Analysis and Structure Decomposition Analysis

虚拟水贸易作为解决缺水地区的水资源供需矛盾问题的战略受到越来越广泛的关注,量化地区虚拟水贸易格局,并分析该格局下区域虚拟水贸易量变动的驱动因素是研究虚拟水和水资源管理的新思路。首先运用投入产出模型计算出2002-2011年中国虚拟水进出口贸易量,分析中国当前虚拟水贸易格局,再运用结构分解法,分解出强度效应、结构效应和规模效应对虚拟水净进口贸易量变动的驱动力。研究结果表明:中国虚拟水贸易呈现净出口状态,其中制造业和农业的虚拟水进口和出口贸易量最大,占虚拟水进出口总量比例最高,是当前中国虚拟水贸易格局的决定产业。规模要素对中国虚拟水净进口贸易量变动逐渐由负向驱动变成正向驱动,强度要素和规模要素对虚拟水净进口贸易起正向作用。了解中国虚拟水贸易格局,探索虚拟水政策化是实现水资源优化配置的重要途径之一,能为中国缓解用水矛盾,解决水资源短缺危机提供一个新视角。

Virtual water trade, as a strategy to solve the water shortage problem, has attracted more and more attention. The quantization of virtual water trade patterns and analysis of driving factors of virtual water change in this pattern is a breakthrough new idea of water manage- ment. This paper firstly uses input-output model to calculate the inflow and outflow of virtual water of the 8 industries of China in 2002 to 2012 and analyze the current virtual water trade pattern of China, and then uses the method of SDA to analyze the driving factors of virtual water change and the change of their contribution. The results show that ： The virtual water trade outflow exceeds the inflow, the virtual water trade of manufacturing and agriculture industry is the biggest part of the whole virtual water trade and have great influences in the whole virtu- al water trade pattern. The contribution of scale factor to the change of virtual water trade changed from negative to possible, while the contri- bution of technology and structure factor is positive. Acknowledging the pattern of the virtual water trade and exploring virtual water policy is an important way to achieve optimal allocation of water resources in China and it offers a new perspective for China to ease water conflicts and solve water shortage crisis.