基于修正自适应Logistic模型的电力需求饱和预测

Saturated Electricity Demand Forecast Based on Amended Self-Adaptive Logistic Model

饱和电力需求是影响电网发展规模的关键指标,研究电力需求的饱和趋势、预测需求进入饱和的时间与规模对于电网规划具有重要意义。将电力需求的增长过程划分为3个阶段,提出了修正自适应Logistic模型,并以中国华东地区的电力需求为例,验证了该模型的准确性与实用性,开展了针对案例的饱和预测研究。

Saturated electricity demand is a pivotal index in power grid development. It is of great significance for power system planning to research on saturation trend and to forecast electricity demand saturation time and scale. Firstly, process of electricity demand growth is divided into three stages. Secondly, an amended self-adaptive Logistic model is proposed. Finally, with the application results to electricity demand in East China, the accuracy and practicability of proposed model is verified.