中国经济增长趋势研究

Research on Economic Growth Trend in China

1978年以来,中国经济高速增长,国民经济综合实力迅速增加,中国一跃成为世界第二大经济体,但是次贷危机对世界及中国经济造成了巨大影响,经过强有力的刺激政策,中国经济出现了短暂的恢复性增长,之后呈现逐渐下降态势。2014年中国GDP增长速度为7.4%,与经济危机之前的中国经济的高速增长相比有较大差距。采用季节调整模型和Hodrick-Prescott滤波分析方法研究发现,中国的长期经济增长速度呈现下滑趋势,其根本因素是消费、投资、净出口的拉动力下降,直接因素是房地产行业下行。为了保持中国经济的长期平稳增长,应该适当鼓励人口增长,降低税收和鼓励科技创新。

Since 1978 , China has enjoyed rapid economic growth and become the world second economy but subprime crisis not only brought great effect to the economy of the world but to China,s economy as well. Though China,s economy showed a brief growth resumption through a strong stimulus, a gradual decline appeared soon afterwards. In 2014 , China,s GDP growth rate was 7. 4% , compared with the rapid growth before the economic crisis, there is a big gap. With the application of the seasonal adjustment model and Hodrick-Prescott filter analysis, the paper finds that China ’ s long-term economic growth rate has a downward trend. This paper further argues that the basic factors of Chi-na ,s downward economic growth rate is the declined driving force in consumption, investment and net exports and the direct factor is the descending real estate industry. To maintain long-term and stable growth of economy, the paper suggests that China should encourage population growth, lower taxes and technological innovation.