“产能合作”对区域货币流通的影响机制研究——兼论中亚地区货币流通的实现机制

Research on Realization Mechanism of Currency Circulation in Central Asia and the Role of Industrial Capacity Cooperation in Regional Currency Circulation

中亚地区存在的"货币流通"难题可归结为"生产能力缺口"导致的信用扩张约束困境。市场经济环境下,商品生产能力是一国货币发行的国家信用基础,中亚国家因生产体系不健全和生产能力不足而导致的生产能力缺口使得流通中的货币数量相对过剩。中亚地区一直以来经济结构单一,金融生态脆弱,长期遭受货币贬值和通货膨胀的冲击。"一带一路"倡议下,推动中国与中亚国家国际产能合作将有助于完善中亚地区的基础生产体系,进而健全货币发行的国家信用基础,为地区币值稳定提供有效的货币发行支撑。与此同时,当前的国际产能合作同中国企业"走出去"、人民币国际化的趋势相辅相成。

The dominance of a single economic structure has led to a fragile financial ecology in central A- sia,which has suffered from continuous depreciation and high inflation for a long time. The article tries to analyze the monetary unrest from the credit theory of money and finds out that a lack of intact production system is the main reason that makes monetary issuing relatively excessive. Under the background of One Belt One Road Initiative,international industrial capacity cooperation （ IICC） may help improve the pro-duction capacity of the region thus to stabilize the foundation of the national credit which supports monetary issuing. Meanwhile,the article further constructs the theoretic framework in supporting the IICC by using a concept of Silk Road Value Chain and holds the view that China outbound investment is gradually restructu-ring the traditional global value chain. Furthermore,the article points out that RMB may play a role in sta-bilizing local currency circulation in Central Asia.