马尾松宏观尺度单木生长模型研究

Large-scale Individual Tree Growth Models for Pinus massoniana in China

林木生长模型是预测森林未来发展、评估生产潜力的定量依据。以我国南方主要针叶树种马尾松(Pinus massoniana)为对象,利用在马尾松分布范围内收集的代表性样本,建立全国尺度的胸径和树高单木生长模型,并分析生长模型是否受地域和起源的影响。结果表明:马尾松胸径的生长过程仅与地域有关而与起源无关,而树高的生长过程则受到地域和起源的双重影响;所建胸径和树高总体平均生长模型,确定系数分别为0.79和0.71,平均预估精度均在96%以上;包含地域和起源因子的胸径和树高生长模型,比总体平均模型有显著改进,其确定系数分别达到0.83和0.74,平均预估精度均进一步提高。所建生长模型为在宏观尺度上预测马尾松林的蓄积量、生物量和碳储量提供了定量参考依据。

Individual tree growth models are quantitative basis for predicting forest development and evalu-ating productivity potential in the future. Based on the mensuration data of sample trees of Masson pine （Pinus massoniana） in southern China, individual tree diameter and height growth models on national level were developed, and effects of region and origin on growth models were analyzed. The results showed that diameter growth model of Masson pine was only related to region, whereas height growth model was affected by both region and origin ; coefficients of determination （ R2） of the developed population average （PA） diameter and height growth models were 0. 79 and 0. 71 respectively, and mean prediction preci-sions were more than 96% ;R2 of the diameter and height growth models with region and origin in varia-bles were 0. 83 and 0. 74 respectively, and mean prediction precisions were all improved, indicating that the models were significantly better than the PA models. The growth models developed in this study could provide quantitative basis for forecasting stock volume, biomass and carbon storage of Masson pine forest on large scale.