我国财政政策效应与经济周期波动的关联性分析

An Analysis of the Linkages between Fiscal Policy's Effects and Business Cycle Fluctuation in China

利用平滑迁移向量自回归模型对中国经济周期不同阶段财政政策效应的动态特征进行了对比分析,结果发现:随着经济周期的波动,中国财政政策效应会发生显著变化,政府支出对私人投资的影响在经济衰退时表现为挤入效应,而到经济扩张时又转变为挤出效应,从而形成了非线性效应,但政府支出对产出和私人消费并未产生非线性效应;政府税收对产出、私人消费和私人投资的影响在经济衰退时期明显大于经济扩张时期,并且政府税收对产出和私人消费具有非线性效应。在当前经济新常态背景下,政府可通过扩大财政支出和结构性减税的方式保障经济平稳增长,但长期内需警惕政府投资和持续减税所产生的不利影响。

In this paper, we investigate the effects of fiscal policy in different stages of business cycle based on a smooth transition vector auto - regression model, the results show that with the business cycle fluctuations, the effects of fiscal policy have changed significantly in China. Government spending has crowding- in effects on private investment in re- cessions, while it has crowding - out effects on private investment in expansions, which means that government spending has nonlinear effects on private investment. However, government spending has no nonlinear effects on output and pri- vate consumption. The effects of government tax on output, private consumption and investment tend to be stronger in re- cessions than in expansions, and government tax has nonlinear effects on private consumption. In the new normal peri- od, the government could have a stable economic growth by increasing government spending and structural tax reduc- tions, together with guard against long - term adverse effects of government investment and tax cuts.