天山冰川储量变化和面积变化关系分析研究

Analysis of the relation between glacier volume change and area change in the Tianshan Mountains

冰川储量的变化对海平面和区域水资源、生态环境以及社会经济等有重要影响,但是对大量冰川的储量变化很难通过实地观测获得。基于天山9条监测冰川储量变化的估算结果,通过统计分析,探讨冰川储量变化和面积变化的相互关系,以期通过测定冰川面积变化来估算冰川储量变化。结果表明:冰川储量变化与面积变化具有线性关系,其决定系数为0.67~0.70。加入其他山区冰川样本以后,决定系数并没有提高。其原因在于,一方面对冰川变化监测和冰川储量估算存在误差;另一方面,不同的冰川区由于冰川的类型、规模及区域气候特征的差异,冰川变化对气候变化响应的敏感程度不同。因此,未来不仅需要更多更准确的冰川储量估算,还需要按冰川形态类型和区域分别研究。

Glacier volume change has significant influence on sea level, regional water resources, eco-environment and social economy. However, it is very difficult to carry out in-situ measurement. The main aim of this study is to make quantitative investigation on the scaling relation between glacier volume change and area change based on the ice volume estimation of nine glaciers in the Tianshan Mountains. Then, the scaling relation between glacier volume change and area change, which is suited for current climate condition and response process of glaciers, is established by using statistical method in order to estimate glacier volume change from glacier area change. It is found that there is a linear relation between glacier reserve change and glacier area change, with a determination coefficient between 0.67 and 0.70. The determination coefficient does not improve much as adding samples of glaciers in the other mountain areas. The reason may be that, on the one hand, there are errors in the glacier change monitoring and volume estimating, on the other hand, the sensitivity of glacier change to climate change, which depended on the glacier type, size and their regional differentia, is not the same. Therefore, in further study, it is necessary to focus on not only glacier volume estimation, but also on the glacier type and its regional differentia.