推动全球债务攀升的结构性力量

The Structural Forces that Driving Global Debt

当前对于全球债务攀升过程中各国个性问题的讨论比较热烈,但对于共性问题反而关注不够。从共性上看,虽然所处阶段不同,但发达经济体和新兴经济体已经发生或正在发生深刻的结构性变化:在收入端,经济服务化使得生产要素总体上从生产率较高的部门流向生产率较低的部门,收入汲取能力由此进入下降通道;在支出端,人口城市化使得财政资金不得不从建设性项目转向社会性项目,支出扩张速度因而进入上升通道。经济服务化和人口城市化如同一枚"硬币"的正反面,既是经济社会发展的客观规律,同时也在深层次构成推动全球债务攀升的结构性力量。本文认为,当前尤其要处理好产业结构转变过程中"快"与"慢"的关系,城乡结构转变过程中"物"与"人"的关系。

At present,we have a lot of research on the personality of the debt expansion,and little on the common reasons.From the common perspective,many countries are undergoing structural changes.With the adjustment of industrial structure,the production factors flow from higher productivity sectors to lower productivity sectors,and it make the growth rate decline.On the other hand,in the process of urbanization,public funds flow from economic affairs to social affairs,and it accelerate the speed of financial expansion.The changes in the industrial structure and population distribution are synchronous and drive global debt together.We should prevent service industry growing too fast,and attract farmers settle in the city.