汇率传递与货币政策工具选择——基于开放经济的DSGE模型

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Policy Rules— Based on the Open Economy DSGE Model of China

本文通过假定不同的定价模式来引入两种特殊的汇率传递情况,从而可以在开放经济DSGE模型中重点分析汇率传递对中国货币政策工具选择的影响。研究表明,汇率完全传递时,价格型工具对经济的调控效果在整体上优于数量型工具。但是在汇率完全不传递的情况下,产出缺口会出现更长时间和更大幅度的波动,这时两种货币政策工具各有优劣。在面临外国生产率和本国成本推动冲击时,数量型政策工具则成为汇率完全不传递下更好的政策工具选择。本文认为,现阶段我国中央银行还是要兼顾数量型和价格型两种政策工具,在实施货币政策调控时需要重点考察经济波动的主要来源。

This paper develops an open economy DSGE model to study the effects of exchange rate pass- through on choice of monetary policy tools under different price setting arrangements. We find that the price rule of monetary policy is better than the quantitative tool in many respects under the full exchange rate pass-through situation. However, the output gap will fluctuate in longer time and in bigger degree under LCP. So both rules of monetary policy have their own advantages and disadvantages. Quantitative tool will be more effective under LCP when home economy is affected by the productivity shocks of home countries or the cost-push shocks of foreign countries. The paper suggests that the central bank should manage Chinese economy by both rules and take the sources of fluctuations into consideration.