时空扫描方法在石台县手足口病流行特征中的应用研究

Application study of space-time scanning methods in hand-foot-mouth disease epidemic characteristics in Shitai county

目的分析2012~2016年石台县手足口病流行状况,为今后的防控工作提供科学依据。方法从传染病报告信息管理系统收集石台县手足口病监测数据,采用Excel 2007、SPSS 20、SaTScan 9.3和ArcGIS 10.2软件进行数据分析。结果石台县2012~2016年报告手足口病发病480例,年平均发病率为102.43/10万,0~5岁儿童高发,62.50%的病例来源于0~3岁年龄组;94.38%的病例为散居儿童和幼托儿童,男性发病高于女生;发病高峰出现在春夏、秋冬之交,占总发病例数的63.33%。2012~2016年年均发病率高的区域主要集中在石台县东部乡镇;报告暴发或聚集性疫情4起,均发生于幼托机构。病原谱以Cox-A16为主,占确诊病例的42.28%。时空扫描:一类聚集区域位于石台县东部和南部地区。结论石台县2012~2016年手足口病的发病水平呈下降趋势,但防控压力依然存在,应在高发时间针对重点人群和地区采取针对性的防控措施。

Objective To analyze the epidemic condition of HFMD between 2012 and 2016 in Shitai county,and provide a scientific basis for prevention and control work in the future. Methods Monitoring data on HFMD were collected from the disease surveillance information reporting system. Excel 2007,SPSS20,SaTScan9. 3 and ArcGIS10. 2 software were used for data analysis. Result From 2012 to 2016,480 patients with HFMD were reported from Shitai county. The average annual incidence of HFMD was 102. 43/105. Most of children were under the age of five. 62. 50% of cases were mainly focused on 1-3 year old age group. The scattered living children and childcare children accounted for 94. 38% of all cases. Incidence of male was higher than that of female. Peaks were in the turn of the spring and summer,autumn and winter,which accounted for 63. 33% of all cases. The area with high incidence mainly concentrated in the east towns between 2012 and 2016. Four HFMD public health emergencies were reported,and all the cluster events occurred in nurseries or kindergartens. The main pathogenic spectrum was Cox-A16,with 42. 28% confirmed cases. Space-time clustering analysis showed that the class 1 clustering area was located in our county in eastern and southern regions. Conclusions The incidence of HFMD showed a downward trend,but the pressure still exists. We should take targeted measures to prevent and control the key population and region during high risk time.