摘要
气溶胶有效辐射强迫是评估气溶胶气候效应的有效指标。本文利用国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中7个模式的模拟结果,评估了模式对东亚地区气溶胶光学厚度和有效辐射强迫的模拟水平,并分析了东亚地区平均地表温度对局地人为气溶胶强迫的响应。研究结果显示,大部分模式低估了中国东部和西南部污染地区的气溶胶光学厚度,这可能与模式中气溶胶局地排放、化学过程以及模式分辨率有关;多模式平均的东亚地区气溶胶有效辐射强迫为.4.14 W m.2,气溶胶在东亚地区有明显的降温效应,1850–2005年气溶胶浓度增加使得东亚地区降温.1.05°C。
The effective radiative forcing (ERF) and associated surface air temperature change over eastern China are estimated using multi-model results from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5). The model results show that, relative to 1850, the multi-model and annual mean aerosol ERF for the year 2005 is -4.14 W m^-2 at the top of the atmosphere over eastern China (20°-45°N, 105°-122.5°E). As a result of this ERF, the multi-model and annual mean surface air temperature change in eastern China during 1850-2005 is -1.05℃, leading to a climate sensitivity of 0.24℃/ (Wm^-2) in this region.
基金
supported by the National Basic Research Program of China[973 Program,grant number 2014CB441202]
the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers41475137 and 91544219]
关键词
CMIP5
气溶胶有效辐射强迫
温度变化
东亚
CMIPS
aerosol effective radiative forcing
surface air temperature change
East Asia