《全面禁止核试验条约》的当前困境与未来发展前景

The Difficulties of the CTBT and Its Future

《全面禁止核试验条约》已经达成20周年却迟迟不能生效,其面临的首要困境在于条约生效所必要的最后8个"附件2"国家间存在长期的地缘政治竞争和互信缺失。各国核政策互相绑定在一起导致在加入条约的问题上出现双边博弈、地区内博弈以及地区间博弈嵌套的复杂环境。此外,条约本身的部分条款和相关制度设计也存在缺陷。尽管是为了提升条约的普遍性,但将条约的生效与世界上最为复杂的几组地缘政治关系相挂钩很容易导致自我绑架。由于条约生效进程迟滞而科学技术不断发展,已经建成的全球监测网络和计算机模拟技术使得条约生效的意义出现空洞化。考虑到短期内正面解决地缘政治困境存在巨大挑战,今后"名人小组"和"青年小组"将成为继续推动相关进程的主要力量。

The CTBT has failed to enter into force in the past 20 years.The long-term geopolitical competition and trust deficit among the remaining 8Annex 2countries have become the primary obstacle.The'after you domino politics'has resulted in complicated bilateral,regional and inter-regional game.Additionally,the CTBT also faces problems brought by its own institutional design.The treaty has enhanced its universality at the cost of self-abduction as the coming into force of the treaty is linked with the most challenging geopolitical issues across the world.Furthermore,due to the sluggish progress of the CTBT on one hand and the continuing development of science and technology on the other,the well-established IMS and simulation technology has made the treaty void.Considering the impossibility of solving these geopolitical challenges in short-term,the CTBTO is trying to encourage the GEM and Youth Group to play a bigger role in sustaining the global agenda of CTBT.