多元启发理论与对外政策决策研究

Poliheuristic Theory and Foreign Policy Decision Making Study

近年来,多元启发理论发展趋势较为迅猛,且已得到大量研究的证实。多元启发理论在认知理论和理性选择理论之间构建了一座桥梁,它认为对外政策决策包含两个加工阶段。第一阶段以维度加工为基础,不满足非补偿性政治维度阈限的方案将被删除;第二阶段以方案加工为基础,对剩余方案进行理性分析,力求将结果的利益最大化,风险最小化。运用多元启发理论开展对外政策决策的研究主要体现在理论应用和理论验证两方面。回顾相关研究发现,多元启发理论过于强调国内政治限制,未来的研究不应忽视决策个体、决策背景、决策任务三方面因素及彼此间的互动。

In recent years, the development trend of poliheuristic theory is relatively rapid, and has been confirmed by numerous empirical studies. Poliheuristic theory constructs a bridge between the cognitive theory and rational choice theory, and postulates that foreign policy decision contains two processing stages. The first stage is a dimension-based processing, alternatives which do not meet the noncompensatory political dimension threshold will be deleted; the second stage is a alternative-based processing, use rational analysis for the survival options, and in at- tempt to maximize benefits and minimize risks. Applying poliheuristic theory to study decision of foreign policy is mainly reflected in two aspects of theoretical application and theoretical validation. By reviewing the relevant studies, we found that poliheuristic theory emphasizes the domestic political constraints too much, the difference of decision makers, decision conditions and properties of decision tasks, these three factors should not be ignored in the future study, the interac- tion between them should also be considered.