基于事件树和PRA的民航机场恐怖袭击风险评估模型

Civil aviation airport terrorism risk assessment model based on event tree and PRA

为了降低民航机场恐怖袭击事件发生的概率和风险,提出了一种基于事件树和PRA的民航机场恐怖袭击风险评估模型。利用该模型对恐怖袭击方式、入侵路径、损失概率和遇袭风险等事件进行仿真,通过GTD和其他开源数据库,结合Delphi咨询法,以定量分析的方法,对某民航机场潜在的各类恐袭事件损失概率和遇袭风险进行了评估。仿真结果表明,小型无人机很可能被恐怖分子用于未来的恐袭活动中,应加强机场周界防御和监测措施。

In order to reduce the probability and the risk of civil aviation airport terrorism attacks, this paper proposed an aviation airport terrorism attack risk assessment model based on event tree and PRA, used the model to simulate the invasion route, loss probability and risk events, by GTD and other open source database, combined Delphi consultation method for quantitative analysis, assessed civil aviation airports potential terrorism attack and attack probability event loss risk. Simulation results show that small UAVs are likely to be used for future terrorism attack, should strengthen airport perimeter defenses and monitoring measures.