创新驱动低碳发展了吗?——基础异质和环境规制双重视角下的实证研究

Does Innovation Drive Low-Carbon Development:An Empirical Study on the Dual Perspective of Foundation Heterogeneity and Environmental Regulation

收集2005—2014年30个省、自治区和直辖市的面板数据,运用全局因子分析法将创新分解成创新能力、创新环境和创新产业结构3个要素,从基础异质和环境规制双重视角出发,构建了创新驱动低碳发展的理论假设模型,并运用面板分位数回归模型进行了实证检验。取得了以下主要结论:(1)在省域层面,创新的减排效应大于增长效应,可以促进低碳发展,具体包括提高创新能力和优化创新产业结构这两条路径,但创新环境对低碳发展的促进作用不显著;(2)各地区低碳发展的基础异质性显著影响创新能力和创新产业结构对低碳发展的促进作用,落后地区存在后发优势,即发展基础越差,创新促进低碳发展的作用越显著,并且该优势对排在后20%~30%的省份更加明显;(3)加强环境规制可以提升创新能力对低碳发展的促进效果,起到积极的调节作用,但分别受创新瓶颈和技术基础影响,该调节作用在最先进地区和最落后地区失效。

This paper collects panel data of 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities from 2005 to 2014, then using Global Factor Analysis to decompose innovation into three elements： innovation ability, innova- tion environment and innovation industrial structure. And build a theory hypothesis model of innovation driving low-carbon development model based on the perspective of foundation heterogeneity and environmental regulation Then using Panel Quantile Regression model to test this theory hypothesis model. The main conclusions are as fol- lows： （1） At the provincial level, innovation can promote low-carbon development while the innovation emission reduction effect is greater than the growth effect, and this can be achieved through two paths： improving the inno- vation capacity and optimizing the innovation industrial structure, but the promoting effect of the innovation envi- ronment is not significant;（2） The promoting effect of innovation ability and innovation industrial structure on low-carbon development is Influenced by the foundation heterogeneity significantly, backward regions exist obvious advantage of backwardness, the worse the foundation, the stronger the promotion effect, and this phenomenon is more obvious in the last 20-30% regions; （3） Environmental regulation plays an active regulatory role while strengthening environmental regulation can enhance the promoting effect of innovation ability on low-carbon development, but subjected to innovation bottlenecks and technical foundation, the regulation effect is not significant in the best regions and the worst regions