日本南海政策中的“对冲战略”及其评估——以安倍内阁的对华政策为视角

Japan's Hedging Strategy in the South China Sea and Its Evaluation:From the Perspective of Abe Administration's Policy towards China

安倍内阁上台后,中日关系处在持续低位徘徊、战略信任磨损下行的状态,日本对华政策出现了新特点。除了双边关系加速走向失序和失范之外,在地区层面和多边机制中的博弈和竞争明显上升。日本的南海政策实质上是日本对华政策的重要一环,南海海域成为日本对华实施"对冲战略"的重要地区。"对冲战略"经历了比较低调的"约束性接触"和手段多元的"软制衡"两个阶段,其目的是牵制中国在南海地区影响力的上升,力图维持美日主导的地区政治和安全秩序。日本在南海海域的"对冲战略"一定程度上影响了中国与周边国家的关系,加大了中国的安全压力,但总体遏制效果有限,反而给地区局势带来了紧张和动荡。

Since the Sino- Japanese relations remain at the low point and strategic trust is on the downside after Abe returned to power, there are some new features of Japan＇ s policy towards China. Besides the disorder state of the bilateral relations, the great game and competition between two countries have also been obviously intensified. Japan＇ s South China Sea policy is one part of its policy towards China, and South China Sea has also become a vital area where Japan implements its hedging strategy towards China. Furthermore, to contain China＇ s influence in the Asia Pacific and maintain the regional political and security order dominated by the United States and Japan. Japan＇ s hedging strategy, which has been shifted from a low - key ＂binding - engagement＂ to a muhi- approach ＂soft- balancing＂, is exerting negative effects on the relations between China and other neighbouring countries in this region and imposing some more security pressure on China. However, Japan＇s containment against has limited effect on China, and it has brought controversy and turmoil to regional security environment.