新常态下CPI与PPI背离的货币成因分析

The Monetary Reasons of “Divergence”between CPI and PPI in the New Normal Period

自我国进入宏观经济新常态阶段以来,CPI水平保持低位正增长的同时,PPI水平却出现了连续的下滑态势,二者之间出现了较大程度的背离,这不仅与经济理论不符,同时也使得货币政策调控物价水平的功能受到了严重的制约,经济结构转型受阻。针对这一点,对新常态下CPI与PPI产生背离的货币政策原因进行动态分析。研究发现,不同时期下CPI与PPI对货币冲击反应的差异性引起了CPI与PPI之间背离现象,而这同时也是新常态下货币政策调控二者之间剪刀差效果甚微的原因。故而,中央银行应该强化价格型调节和传导机制,疏通货币政策向实体经济的传导渠道,从而提高货币政策的运行效率和服务实体经济的能力,缓解CPI与PPI之间的背离现象。

Since China has been in the new normal macroeconomic period, CPI remained low positive growth, while PPI held consecu- tively negative downward trend. There has been a great degree of divergence between CPI and PPI. Monetary policy in regulating prices has been severely constrained, and China＇ s economic restructuring has been blocked. In this paper, we concentrate on the reasons in monetary policy why the divergence between CPI and PPI was generated by dynamic analysis method. The study finds that at different periods of time, the changes of CPI and PPI response to monetary impact caused the divergence between CPI and PPI, which was the reason why in the new normal period monetary policy could not reduce the scissors differences between the CPI and PPI levels effectively. Therefore, the central bank should strengthen the price-based regulation and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, clear transmission channels to the real economy. By enhancing operational efficiency and the ability of monetary policy serving the real economy, central bank could reduce the divergence between the CPI and the PPI.