人口结构与产业结构耦合的经济效应实证分析

An Empirical Study on the Economic Effects of the Coupling between Population Structure and Industrial Structure

本文基于2001—2014年的面板数据,测算出人口结构与产业结构间的耦合协调度,并用静态面板数据模型、动态面板数据模型和空间计量模型对经济增长与耦合协调度进行实证分析。结果发现:人口结构与产业结构间耦合协调度对经济增长有促进作用,耦合协调度越高,经济增长效应就高;耦合协调度还存在着空间相关性,一个地区的耦合协调度对其相邻地区具有"空间溢出"作用。因此,要破除人口迁移制约要素,获取人口空间配置红利;加快产业结构调整,放大产业结构对人口结构回馈作用;因地制宜,注重人口结构与产业结构间的均衡发展。

Based on the panel data from 2001 to 2014, this article estimates the coupling coordination de- gree between population structure and industrial structure. It also makes an empirical analysis on the eco- nomic growth and coupling coordination by combining the models of static panel data, dynamic panel da- ta, and spatial econometrics. The results show that the degree of the coupling coordination between popu- lation structure and industrial structure has a facilitating effect on economic growth. The higher the degree of the coupling coordination is, the more tremendous the effects of economic growth will be. What＇ s more, the degree of the coupling coordination of a certain region has a ＂spatial spillover＂ effect on its ad- jacent regions. Therefore, it is necessary to get rid of the restrictive elements in population migration to obtain the spatial configuration dividends. Speeding up industrial restructuring and strengthening its feed- back on the population structure is also a must. In addition, it＇ s significant to act according to the local conditions and achieve balanced development between population structure and industrial structure.