能源约束下我国主导产业选择的一种思路——基于投入产出与贸易诱发模型

Reflection on the Selection of China's Dominant Industry in Terms of Energy Restriction—Based on the Input-output and Trade Inducing Model

基于综合关联评价法,分析了中国工业和服务业的产业关联效应及其对国民经济的促进作用。借助数据包络分析法(DEA)测算中国工业各行业能源利用效率并进行动态聚类分析,结合综合关联评价、动态聚类分析与对外贸易诱发模型的测算结果,明确了能源约束下我国主导产业理想选择和竞争力择优培育的一种思路。

By adopting a comprehensive evaluation method, this paper analyzes the correlative effects be- tween industry and service trades in China and their facilitation to the national economy subsequently. Then, the paper calculates the efficiency of energy utilization in different industries in China by means of data envelopment analysis and proceeds with a dynamic clustering analysis. Based on the findings, a new insight as to the selection of China＇ s dominant industry and optimal cultivation of competitiveness in terms of energy restriction is proposed.