基于集值―层次分析的重庆地票风险识别与评价

Risk Identification and Evaluation of the Construction Land Securities in Chongqing Based on Set-valued Statistics and Hierarchy

在总结地票制度存在的6大风险因素及其对应的风险因子后,运用模糊层次分析法对各风险因素及对应的风险因子赋权重值,再通过集值统计分析法得到各个风险因子的风险值,最后运用综合评价法得出地票制度系统风险。评价结果表明:地票制度系统风险概率值为0.670 7,风险较高,其中最主要的风险因子是地方政府土地复垦上的寻租风险、地票成本转移到房价上的风险、地票持有人拿地不成功的风险、复垦后撂荒导致耕地质量下降风险、复垦农民社会保障风险、地票对现行征地政策的影响风险、地票和国家计划指标衔接的法律缺失风险。最后,根据研究结论有针对性地提出了地票风险规避的措施和建议。

The Construction Land Securities （Dipiao in Chinese） in Chongqing has been created under the background of the increasingly intense use of urban construction land as well as the sharp decline of farmland quantity, aiming at resolving the current situation of intense use of urban construction land and guaranteeing the quantity and quality of cultivated land. It is an important way to realize the overall development of urban and rural areas and promote the newly-typed urbanization. However, due to the immaturity of the system itself, there are some risks in the operating process of Dipiao. Based on the summary of the six potential risk factors, by using the methods of quantitative and qualitative analysis, many risk sub-factors have been studied so as to not only get a comprehensive and specific understanding of overall risk probability of the Dipiao system but also find out several major risk sub-factors existing in the system. The risk factors and corresponding risk sub-factors are graded and given weigh values by Fuzzy AHP. Afterwards, set-valued analysis is used to get the risk value of each risk sub-factor. Results showed that the overall risk probability reached 0.670 7, which highlights a relatively high risk existing in Dipiao system. Furthermore, 7 major risk sub-factors have been presented as follows： rent seeking in the reclamation led by the local government, potential risk of higher land prices passing to housing price, the Dipiao holders’ failure in finding a proper receiving area, the effect of fallow on cultivated land quality after reclamation, the risk of famers’ social security, the impact of Dipiao on the land expropriation policy, the lack of legal supervision and management between Dipiao and planned land indicators. To avoid the risks, the Dipiao system needs to ensure the quality of reclamation for cultivated land, monitor the dynamic balance of cultivated land quantity and quality, ensure the rights and interests of the farmers and Dipiao holders in the reclamation and acceptance, transaction and using section. In the application of reclamation, the Dipiao policy should be propagated fully before the reclamation, so that the farmers could understand the advantages and disadvantages of reclamation. Besides, it is necessary to consider the housing problems of the farmers who reclaimed their homestead land and would reside in the rural area years later. In the acceptance of reclaimed land, the Bureau of the Land Resources of Chongqing and the Rural Land Exchange Centre in Chongqing are expected to be involved in the check before acceptance and strictly monitor the quantity and quality of reclaimed land. The local land resource management department would make efforts to prevent land abandonment and stimulate farmers＇ enthusiasm on cultivating. In Dipiao trading process, the scale of Dipiao should be refined to meet the need not only of the large enterprises, but also the small and medium-sized enterprise or individuals. In the using phase of Dipiao, it is recommended to conduct a study of the withdrawal mechanism of Dipiao and explore secondary market, including the way of transfer, the subject and the object of transfer, the frequency limit of transfer and the time limit of using Dipiao after the transfer. Considering the differential land rent and the loss of land use rights, the landless peasants＇ compensation standards are expected to be improved. In addition, Dipiao would be incorporated into the land use master plan to prevent the negative impact of the demand of Dipiao because of the existing double way of acquiring construction land.