改革开放以来中国对外贸易与经济增长关系实证研究

Empirical Research on the Relationship between China's Foreign Trade and Economic Growth since Reform and Opening up

改革开放以来,对外贸易已成为我国经济增长的一个重要推动力,为探讨中国对外贸易与经济增长之间的相互关系,选取1978—2015年我国国内生产总值与进出口贸易额等数据,采用单位根检验、EG协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法对我国对外贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证研究,研究表明:改革开放以来,我国对外贸易与经济增长长期存在稳定性关系,出口贸易对经济增长的拉动作用较进口贸易更显著,与此同时,我国出口贸易和进口贸易间存在双向因果关系。针对我国对外贸易存在的问题,提出了促进我国进出口贸易与经济增长协调发展的对策建议。

Since Chinat reform and opening up, foreign trade has become an important driving force of economic growth in our country. It selects Chinat gross domestic product ,import and export trade data from 1978 to 2015 to explore the relationship between Chinat foreign trade and economic growth, by means of unit root test, EG cointegration test, granger causality test. The results show that： since the reform and opening up, there are long- term stability relations between China＇s foreign trade and economic growth, the effect of export trade on economic growth is more important than that of import trade. At the same time, there is a two - way effect between China＇s export and import trade. This paper puts forward some countermeasures to pro- mote the harmonious development of import and export trade and economic growth.