城乡低保是否有助于未来减贫——基于贫困脆弱性的实证分析

Does Urban and Rural Subsistence Security System Reduce Future Poverty? Empirical Analysis Based on Vulnerability of Poverty

长久以来,相关文献多集中于讨论最低生活保障制度对家庭当期贫困的影响,而忽视了远期效果。借助CFPS2012微观调查数据,本文实证考察了城乡低保对家庭贫困脆弱性的影响。文中采取倾向值匹配(PSM)方法以尽可能消除样本选择偏误。基本结果表明:低保制度对贫困脆弱性并未产生明显的改善效果,反而有可能增加家庭未来陷入贫困的可能性。这一结论对于城市和农村家庭都是成立的。本文认为,低保制度未降低贫困脆弱性至少有如下原因:一是制度执行中存在瞄准偏差;二是低保挤出了参保家庭的私人转移支付;三是低保降低了居民的工作意愿。机制分析支持了上述论断。本文主要贡献在于以前瞻性视角对最低生活保障制度的减贫效果进行再评估,为政府制定和调整相关政策方针提供了参考。

For a long time, the related literatures on the relationship between Subsistence Security System and poverty are main concentrated in the current effects while ignoring its long-term effects. With the aid of CFPS2012 micro survey data, this paper empirically investigates the impact of the Urban and Rural Subsistence Security System to the household vulnerability of poverty. The Method of Propensity Score Matching（PSM） has been adopted in this paper to eliminate the sample selection bias as far as possible. Basic results show that Subsistence Security System has not significantly improved the vulnerability to poverty of the family, and may increase the possibility of falling into poverty in the future, in which conclusion is valid for both urban and rural households. This paper considers the reasons why the Subsistence Security System does not play a role in poverty reduction at least lay in the following aspects. Firstly, there is an aiming deviation existing in the implementation of this policy. Secondly, it crowds out the private transfer payment of the insured families. And thirdly, it reduces the willingness to work of the residents. Channel analysis has supported the conclusion above. The main contribution of this paper is to re-evaluate the effects of poverty reduction due to the Urban and Rural Subsistence Security System in a forward-looking perspective, and to provide beneficial references for government in establishing and rectifying related policies.