基于贝叶斯SDM模型的中国城镇居民收入收敛性分析

Analysis on the Chinese Urban Residents' Income Convergence Based on the Bayesian SDM

随着中国经济的高速增长,中国区域间贫富差距也日渐加大,在此背景下对中国城镇居民收入是否收敛进行检验并探究其影响原因十分必要。基于一个包括物质资本和人力资本投入的新古典增长模型,根据中国31个省市的1987—2013年数据,利用SDM模型和贝叶斯MCMC统计分析方法,研究城镇居民收入的收敛性问题,结果发现:中国城镇居民人均收入具有显著的空间差异,且在1987—2008年为发散、在2008—2013年以及1987—2013年为存在β收敛的变化趋势;物质资本对中国城镇居民收入增长的β收敛具有正向促进作用,而人力资本对其具有反向促进作用,增加物质资本投入有利于缩小地区收入差距,二者的不匹配可能是导致中国收入增长差距的原因。

With the high growth of Chinese economy, economic disparities among both the rich and poor regions have arisen in China. Under this background, therefore, it is extremely necessary to test whether the Chinese urban residents income convergence and explore its cause. According to a neoclassical growth model including the physical and human capital simultaneously and the data of Chinese 30 provinces from 1987 to 2013,we research urban residents, income convergence based on the SDM and Bayesian MCMC method. Bayesian MCMC method can explore the available data at utmost and deal with more effectively both spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data. The conclusions show that the income per capita of Chinese urban residents is divergence from 1987 to 2008 and is convergence from 2008 to 2013 and from 1987 to 2013. Moreover, the physical capital plays the positive role to the convergence of income per capita and the human capital is just doing the reverse. The increase of physical capital is of benefit to narrowing the gap of regional income and the mismatch between the physical and human capital may result in the Chinese income growth gap.