社会保障促进了区域经济增长吗——基于时空效应及分解的动态空间面板模型分析

Has Social Security Promoted Regional Economic Growth:Analysis of Dynamic Spatial Panel Model Based on Temporal-spatial Effect and Decomposition

本文利用2001年-2014年我国31个省份社会保障支出数据,基于社会保障规模和结构视角,引入时间滞后、空间滞后和时空滞后因素构建动态空间面板模型,分析社会保障对区域经济增长的时空效应,并对时空效应进行偏微分分解。实证研究发现,我国区域经济增长不仅存在正的空间依赖性和正的时间依赖性,还存在负的时空依赖性。社会保障规模和结构对区域经济增长的长期空间效应和短期间接效应并不显著,社会保障规模、社会保险规模和社会优抚规模对区域经济增长均具有较为显著的短期负向直接效应。控制变量中,人力资本和城镇化率对区域经济增长分别具有短期正向和负向的直接效应,经济开放程度对区域经济增长具有短期负向直接效应和短期正向间接效应。

Using the social security expenditure data of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2014,this paper introduces the factors of time lag,spatial lag and temporal-spatial lag to construct dynamic spatial panel model based on the perspective of scale and structure of social security,so as to analyze the temporal-spatial effect of social security on regional economic growth,and decompose the temporal-spatial effect by partial differential method.The empirical study shows that China's regional economic growth not only has positive spatial dependence and positive time dependence,but also negative temporal-spatial dependence.The long-term spatial effect and short-term indirect effect of scale and structure of social security on regional economic growth are not significant.And there are significant short-term negative direct effects of the scale of social security,social insurance and social care on the regional economic growth.Human capital has positive short-term direct effects on regional economic growth,urbanization rate has negative short-term direct effects,and degree of economic openness has short-term negative direct effect and short-term positive indirect effects on regional economic growth.