旅游流的定量研究方法:述评与展望

Quantitative Methods for Tourist Flow: Review and Prospect

研究方法的形成和发展往往就是一门科学理论形成和发展的过程,旅游流是旅游系统的神经中枢和纽带,因此,探讨旅游流研究方法体系具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文通过国内外旅游相关文献的检索,从共时与历时两方面对旅游流的定量研究方法展开分析。共时性方面:学界普遍运用接待指数、首位度等模型,结合Geoda、GIS、SPSS等软件对旅游流的流质、流量、流向、流速、强度、稳定性等特征进行分析研究。历时性方面:运用距离衰减原理、集散度、均匀度等测度模型,结合Arcgis、Mapinfo等软件对旅游流的空间分布特征、网络特征、时空演化等特征进行研究。文章认为跨学科方法的引入已成为旅游流研究的重要手段,呈现经济学、地理学、物理学、心理学等多学科交叉融合态势。随着信息技术尤其是大数据的发展,基于新型数据获取技术的定量研究方法是旅游流研究的重要发展方向。

The formation of the research methods tends to be a process of developing a science. Tourist flow is the key and bond for the whole travel system. Therefore, the improvement of the research method system for tourist flow is of great theoretical and practical significance. From synchronic and diachronic perspectives, this paper analyzes quantitative research methods of tourism flow by retrieving relevant domestic and foreign literature. Synchronically, scholars generally adopt models of reception index, primacy ratio to analyze the quality, quantity, direction, speed, strength and stability of the tourism flow with the assistance of some software like Geoda, GIS, SPSS, etc. Diachronically, scholars generally adopt models of distance decay principle, collecting and distributing degree and evenness index to analyze special features, web features, evolution features of tourism flow with the aid of some software like Arcgis, Mapinfo. The analysis reveals that interdisciplinary method has become an important means to study tourism flow, in which economics, geography, physics and psychology and so on join hands. With the development of information technology, especially the development of big data, the qualitative method based on the new data collecting technique will lead the future tourism flow research.